Bitcoin (BTC) traders are aggressively positioning for a $100,000 price target, with call options at this level dominating derivatives markets. On the Deribit exchange, open interest for BTC call options at $100,000 and beyond has surged to nearly $1.2 billion, signaling bullish sentiment despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. This shift comes as traders navigate conflicting signals from geopolitical tensions, regulatory moves, and institutional dynamics.
Deribit’s $100,000 Call Options: A Bullish Bet
The popularity of $100,000 call options reflects traders’ confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to rebound from recent volatility. According to CoinDesk Markets editor Omkar Godbole, the shift in sentiment stems from a mix of geopolitical developments and market psychology:
“The bond market crisis triggered by Trump’s tariff shifts has flipped rhetoric from aggression to capitulation, then to aggressive bounce-backs. Bearish/protective plays like $75K–78K put options are fading, while $85K–100K calls dominate as BTC rallies from $75K.”
As of April 14, Bitcoin traded at ~$84,800, with derivatives data showing a sharp focus on higher targets. Call options between $95,000–120,000 dominate open interest, while put options at $70,000 remain popular among hedgers. The call/put ratio, a sentiment indicator, has rebounded to neutral levels after hitting -14% lows a week earlier, per Amberdata.
Trump’s Tariff Drama Drives Volatility
The U.S. administration’s conflicting statements on tariffs have amplified market swings. On April 11, the White House announced a 90-day tariff exemption for Chinese tech imports like smartphones, but President Trump swiftly contradicted this, reinstating a 20% duty.
Bitcoin’s resilience amid this chaos has drawn attention. Analysts note that traders view crypto as a hedge against trade wars and inflationary pressures. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor recently echoed this, stating:
“Bitcoin thrives as a haven when traditional markets fracture. The $100K target is achievable if geopolitical risks persist.”
Andrew Kang’s $200M Bullish Bet
Venture capitalist Andrew Kang, founder of Mechanism Capital, has amplified bullish bets by doubling his Bitcoin stake to $200 million. Using 40x leverage, Kang’s position carries potential gains/losses of $6.8 million, per Arkham Intelligence.
The move came days after Trump’s “Trump Put” commentary, where he hinted that now is a “good time to buy” amid market turmoil. Kang cited the trade war-driven capitulation and regulatory clarity as catalysts for a Bitcoin rebound:
“This is the perfect storm for BTC to reverse its multi-month downtrend.”
Institutional Crosscurrents: ETF Outflows vs. Bullish Derivatives
While retail and derivatives traders rally behind the $100K target, institutional sentiment remains mixed. CryptoQuant warns of a $795 million outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks, signaling caution among large investors.
“A sharp drop in ETF assets suggests institutions are exiting,” CryptoQuant analysts noted. “Monitor this trend closely—it could cap Bitcoin’s rise.”
This divergence highlights a key tension: traders see opportunities in volatility, while institutions remain wary of macro risks like the Capo Of Crypto’s “Great Depression” warning for late 2025.
Key Drivers for the $100K Target
- Tariff Uncertainty: U.S.-China trade tensions and Trump’s erratic policy shifts create demand for Bitcoin as a hedge.
- Derivatives Momentum: High open interest at $100K–120K fuels self-fulfilling price targets.
- Hodler Sentiment: Long-term holders (LTHs) continue accumulating, with Glassnode data showing reduced sell pressure.
- Regulatory Momentum: U.S. states like New York and Florida advance crypto-friendly laws, boosting legitimacy.
Bearish Clouds on the Horizon
Despite the optimism, risks persist. Capo Of Crypto warns of another capitulation in coming weeks, with a bear market likely by autumn. His outlook aligns with technical indicators:
- Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average ($76,000) remains critical support.
- A sustained breach below this could trigger a freefall toward $65,000–71,000, eroding trader confidence.
Global Context: Bitcoin as a Geopolitical Hedge
Bitcoin’s $100K target is also tied to broader macro trends:
- CBDC Competition: Central banks like China’s DCEP and the EuroCBDC threaten Bitcoin’s role as a decentralized alternative.
- Inflation Fears: Rising global debt and currency devaluations could boost demand for BTC’s scarcity.
- Crypto Adoption: El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law and Wyoming’s crypto-friendly bills set precedents for institutionalization.
Conclusion: $100K or Bust?
Traders’ $100K bets reflect hope that Bitcoin can outperform in turbulent markets. Yet, the path remains fraught with political, regulatory, and technical hurdles.
As Bitcoin hovers near $85K, the coming weeks will test whether traders’ bullish bets or institutional skepticism wins out. The $100K milestone could be a turning point—or a warning sign of overreach in a fragile market. Stay tuned.
