In a recent report, Glassnode, a leading on-chain analytics firm, dissected the implications of U.S. President Donald Trump’s newly announced tariffs on Bitcoin’s price trajectory and broader market dynamics. Titled “Tarrifs and Turmoil: the latest Week On-Chain report,” the analysis highlights critical price thresholds, shifting investor behavior, and structural shifts in the crypto market. The report underscores Bitcoin’s resilience amid economic uncertainty but warns of lingering risks tied to market sentiment and technical indicators.
Price Dynamics: Support, Resistance, and Long-Term Outlook
Glassnode identifies key price levels that could determine Bitcoin’s short- and long-term direction. Currently, the cryptocurrency is caught between $76,000 (365-day moving average, or 365 DMA) as immediate support and $93,000 (111-day moving average, or 111 DMA) as resistance. A sustained breach above $93,000 is deemed critical to reigniting a bullish trend. Conversely, closing below $76,000 would signal deeper corrections, with the next long-term support zone lying between $65,000 and $71,000.
The $93,000 resistance also aligns with the “cost basis” of short-term traders, meaning sustained trading above this level could push out sellers holding at a loss. Meanwhile, a one-standard-deviation drop from $93,000 places Bitcoin near $72,000—a zone where further selling might intensify.
On-Chain Metrics Reveal Selling Pressure and Structural Shifts
The report notes a significant shift in selling dynamics during the recent correction since February 27. Mid-term holders (those holding Bitcoin for 3–6 months) now account for 19.4% of total losses, up from just 0.8% previously. Glassnode attributes this to structural pressure on investors who entered during earlier rallies but are now capitulating.
“This marks a structural shift in loss realization, signaling sustained pressure on mid-term holders,” the analysts emphasized. However, they also observed a decline in the magnitude of losses with each price dip, suggesting “bearish exhaustion” and a growing acceptance of lower price ranges.
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Divergent Paths in Bear Market
While Bitcoin has held up relatively well, Ethereum (ETH) lags behind historically. The ETH/BTC ratio has plummeted 75% since The Merge, hitting a 0.0196 low—its weakest since 2020. Glassnode links this divergence to Ethereum’s underperformance in capturing institutional or retail inflows, despite its role in the broader ecosystem.
ETH’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has dipped below 1, indicating the average holder is now underwater. In contrast, Bitcoin’s MVRV remains positive, albeit narrowing, reflecting lingering optimism among long-term holders.
Altcoin Sector Faces 40% Cap Drop Amid Liquidity Squeeze
The broader altcoin market has suffered a sharp contraction. Excluding stablecoins and Ethereum, the sector’s total capitalization has slumped 40% since December 2024, from $1 trillion to $583 billion. Riskier assets, particularly meme coins and layer-2 protocols, face the brunt of the sell-off as investors retreat to safer havens like Bitcoin.
Expert Opinions: Tariffs, Sentiment, and Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Role
Glassnode’s analysis coincides with broader market narratives about Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against economic turbulence. Bernstein analysts recently praised Bitcoin’s “impressive resilience” amid tariff-driven volatility. Meanwhile, ex-BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes argued that U.S. tariffs could drive capital into Bitcoin, positioning it as an alternative to traditional assets.
However, Glassnode cautions that macroeconomic pressures, including Trump’s tariffs and Federal Reserve policies, remain major risks. The firm notes that a sustained move below $65,000–$71,000 would erode most active investors’ profits, potentially triggering further panic.
Broader Economic Context: Tariffs and Crypto’s Crossroads
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs—targeting Chinese imports and tech sectors—have roiled global markets, with crypto assets not immune. The report links the sell-off to broader economic anxiety, though Bitcoin’s volatility historically spikes during such events.
Critics argue that tariffs could accelerate crypto adoption as a store of value, especially in regions facing trade wars. However, regulatory uncertainty and institutional hesitancy may counterbalance this momentum.
Conclusion: Watching the Numbers
Glassnode’s analysis paints a nuanced picture: while Bitcoin faces near-term hurdles, its fundamentals—decentralization, scarcity, and on-chain health—remain intact. Investors are urged to monitor $76,000 and $93,000 closely, with the latter’s breakout critical for a sustained rally.
As Ethereum struggles and altcoins retreat, Bitcoin’s dominance may rise further, but only if it can weather the current volatility. With geopolitical and economic headwinds persisting, the coming months will test whether crypto’s resilience can outlast the storm.
