First, a crucial update: MKR migrated to SKY in late 2025. If you’re modeling MKR price into 2026, you need to know that MakerDAO rebranded to Sky Protocol and upgraded MKR → SKY and DAI → USDS. Major exchanges and the official portal ran the conversion at a fixed 1 MKR = 24,000 SKY (a redenomination; market cap didn’t change because the supply unit was split). Binance, Gemini, and Sky’s own upgrade site documented the timeline and conversion mechanics.
From here on, most on-chain and exchange data will quote SKY, not MKR. If you still think in MKR terms, multiply any SKY price by 24,000 to get a rough “MKR-equivalent” price, or divide historic MKR figures by 24,000 to compare with new quotes. The broader Endgame roadmap—governance simplification, SubDAO architecture, and brand shift—is explained on Sky’s official site and long-form research.
What will likely drive the (former) MKR price in 2026
1) Endgame execution and product-market fit
The Endgame plan retools the Maker/Sky stack with clearer governance, SubDAOs, and a consumer-facing stablecoin experience (USDS/Sky Savings Rate). Execution here affects revenue, stickiness, and ultimately buyback capacity—the main link to token value.
2) Stablecoin growth and yield (USDS replacing DAI)
The rebrand positions USDS as an “upgraded” DAI with rewards and a simpler retail story. Growth (or stagnation) in USDS supply will be one of the cleanest read-throughs for 2026 revenue and sentiment. A balanced industry view notes that early USDS adoption saw fits and starts, which makes 2026 traction a key watch-item.
3) Real-world asset (RWA) income
Maker/Sky’s income has leaned heavily on short-term U.S. Treasuries and tokenized funds. In mid-2025, S&P Global Ratings assigned Sky Protocol a ‘B-’ with “stable” outlook and disclosed ~$985M allocated across two tokenized, short-term U.S. Treasury funds—a clear sign the RWA engine is central to fundamentals. If policy rates ease in 2026, yield compression could soften income; if RWAs broaden, it could offset that.
4) Ongoing buybacks / burns
The Smart Burn Engine automatically routes surplus (after buffers) to buy SKY on-market and burn it—historically a strong narrative and mechanical tailwind. The mechanism launched in 2023 and has seen multiple parameter updates through 2025; the more recurring surplus the protocol prints, the more consistent the buy pressure.
A scenario map for 2026
These are not financial advice; think of them as strategy frameworks that you can update as fresh data arrives.
Base case: “Execution beats noise”
- Assumptions: USDS resumes steady growth; RWA yields compress modestly with rate cuts but are partly offset by larger balances; Smart Burn continues at a measured pace; governance remains boring (good).
- Implication: Market cap expands modestly YoY; “per-token” SKY rises with controlled emissions and buybacks. To view this in MKR-equivalent terms, multiply the new SKY quote by 24,000.
- Why it’s plausible: The Endgame plan is designed for incrementalism. You don’t need parabolic growth—just credible, repeatable surplus to sustain buybacks.
Bull case: “Endgame clicks + RWAs scale”
- Assumptions: Clear product wins (USDS integrations, savings UX, SubDAO launches), regulatory clarity for tokenized treasuries, and a broader RWA on-ramp (institutional).
- Implication: Revenue and surplus widen despite falling rates; burn cadence accelerates; multiple expansion returns as DeFi risk appetite improves.
- What to watch: Exchange announcements supporting the swap (now mostly done), USDS listings/merchants, new RWA mandates, and governance votes increasing burn budgets.
Bear case: “Soft demand + lower yields”
- Assumptions: Rates fall faster than USDS grows; RWA income drops; buybacks shrink; SubDAO milestones slip; competition from USDC/USDT or other savings products intensifies.
- Implication: Market cap stalls or contracts; SKY underperforms large-cap DeFi; in MKR-equivalent terms, your old unit value would trend lower unless a new catalyst appears.
- Mitigants: Governance can re-tune parameters, raise the surplus buffer “hump,” or adjust allocation mix, but markets may demand proof.
Key risks to any MKR (now SKY) price prediction
- Rate sensitivity: A large slice of Sky’s income still traces to short-duration Treasuries; a sharp rate reset crimps surplus (and buybacks).
- Stablecoin competition: USDS must earn mindshare vs. USDT/USDC. If adoption lags, 2026 projections get marked down.
- Regulatory change for RWAs/stablecoins: Jurisdictional rules affect custody, disclosures, and portfolio composition—direct inputs to income. (S&P’s coverage underscores how closely traditional finance is watching.)
- Execution risk: Endgame brings moving parts (SubDAOs, staking/lock features, brand). Coordination risk can show up in slower shipping.
How to track the thesis in 2026
- Official Endgame hub: Roadmap progress, token upgrade notices, and governance docs live at Sky’s site. This is your baseline for delivery vs. promises.
- Governance & burn parameters: Watch Smart Burn Engine votes/updates and surplus buffer settings on the Maker/Sky governance portal. They tell you how much buy pressure might actually hit the market.
- Exchange operations: Migration completion notes (e.g., Binance, Gemini) reduce frictions that can suppress demand/liquidity in the short run.
- RWA disclosures / ratings: Track S&P or auditor updates on tokenized fund allocations and risk. This is the cleanest, high-signal proxy for income durability.
What MKR price predictions really mean now
Talking about MKR price in 2026 now means talking about SKY—and mapping it back to MKR via the 24,000:1conversion for legacy comparisons. The drivers are clear: Endgame execution, USDS adoption, RWA income, and the Smart Burn Engine buying and burning supply when surplus allows. If 2026 brings steady USDS growth and intact RWA yields, a base-case expansion in market cap (and therefore SKY/MKR-equivalent price) is reasonable. If yields compress faster than adoption grows, or if execution slips, the bear case takes the wheel.