Bitcoin’s late-December rally window is narrowing—and prediction markets now say the odds of a $100,000 Bitcoin price before New Year’s are below even. A ForkLog roundup this week highlighted that traders on Kalshi price the chance of BTC reclaiming six figures by Dec. 31 at ~42%, while Polymarket sits lower at ~39% (as of Dec. 12). The article also noted spot prices hovering around $92,230 at the time.
Those readings line up with the mood music across markets. After a strong autumn, Bitcoin slipped toward $89,000 to start the current week as liquidity thinned into year-end—hardly the launchpad bulls hoped for. Earlier in December, mainstream coverage observed bettors marking down the “$100k-by-year-end” contracts as BTC retreated, underscoring how sentiment has cooled from October’s highs.
What the prediction markets are actually pricing
Kalshi— a regulated U.S. event market—lists a binary contract that resolves “Yes” if CF Benchmarks confirms Bitcoin traded ≥ $100,000 between late November and 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 31, 2025. The market’s ~42% price implies less-than-even odds of that threshold before the year closes. Polymarket, a crypto-native prediction platform, shows a similar message with odds in the high 30s on comparable “$100k this year” phrasing.
These markets don’t claim clairvoyance, but they provide a live probability digest of crowd expectations—useful context when headlines swing between euphoria and despair.
Why the $100k bet faded
A few concrete factors pushed expectations down:
- Price and momentum. BTC’s pullback from October’s peak and the drift to the high-$80Ks / low-$90Ks reduce runway for a last-minute spike. ForkLog’s Monday note pegged spot near $89,000, reflecting the post-Fed fade and thinner year-end liquidity.
- Tempered sell-side forecasts. Standard Chartered—once vocal about a $200k year-end path—halved its 2025 projection to $100k, citing weaker momentum and cooling institutional demand. Even if long-term targets remain lofty, the near-term tone is more cautious.
- ETF and treasury dynamics. Analysts have flagged slower buying from corporate “digital-asset treasury” (DAT) names and choppier ETF flows—removing a tailwind that fueled earlier breakouts.
To be sure, the institutional bid hasn’t vanished: MicroStrategy (now “Strategy”) disclosed a new 10,624 BTCpurchase (~$962.7M) in early December, reminding traders that deep-pocketed balance-sheet buyers are still active on dips. But one firm’s add doesn’t guarantee a broad rush back to six figures before New Year’s.
The bull case that’s still on the table
While prediction markets lean skeptical, bulls have a few cards left:
- Seasonality and positioning. Coinbase Institutional argued this month that November’s reset improved the setup for December, with leverage down and room for a bounce if macro cooperates.
- Technical waypoints. Traders like Daan Crypto Trades have pointed to a cluster of resistance and liquidity near the year’s opening levels; a clean reclaim of the mid-$90Ks could open a path toward $98K–$108K in optimistic scenarios. (That said, the same maps warn of quick rejections.)
With just days left in 2025, the path to $100k likely requires a swift, high-energy move—not a leisurely grind.
Why this matters beyond a round number
Round numbers shape behavior. A print at $100,000 (even intraday) would:
- Flip several prediction contracts to “Yes,” altering P&L and potentially forcing hedges to cover.
- Energize momentum strategies that key off psychological levels, adding reflexivity to flows.
- Feed the next news cycle: “Bitcoin price hits $100,000” draws in sidelined retail and can impact ETF narratives.
Conversely, missing $100k keeps the story centered on consolidation into 2026, with attention turning to macro data, ETF net flows, and the pace of on-chain activity rather than milestone headlines.
Conclusion
As of mid-December, prediction markets say the coin flip favors “no” on Bitcoin $100,000 before 2026—~42% on Kalshi, ~39% on Polymarket—and spot hovers near $90k. That doesn’t preclude a surprise, but it sets a realistic base case for traders: treat a $100k print as a tail event unless price, momentum, and liquidity align quickly. For everyone else, the more important question is what January brings—because whether or not BTC kisses six figures this month, the Bitcoin price trend in early 2026 will be driven by the same forces the odds are watching now: ETF flows, macro, and participation.