Prediction markets went mainstream in 2025. If you like Polymarket’s “trade the news” vibe but want options that fit different rules, wallets, or risk limits, here are five credible alternatives. They span regulated U.S. venues, on-chain decentralized platforms, and play-money ecosystems where you can test ideas with zero real-money exposure.
Kalshi — Regulated U.S. event contracts
What it is: A CFTC-regulated designated contract market for event futures. You trade yes/no contracts on macro, politics, sports props, and more—fully KYC’d, dollars in/dollars out. In 2025, regulators dropped their appeal over Kalshi’s election markets, clearing a key hurdle.
Why it’s a Polymarket alternative: Same “price = probability” experience, but inside U.S. law with exchange rulebooks and disclosures. In December, Phantom wallet said it would surface Kalshi markets to its 20M users, signaling a bridge between on-chain UX and regulated contracts.
Caveats: State-level gaming regulators still matter; Nevada and others have asserted jurisdiction over certain Kalshi offerings (especially sports), so availability can vary by state.
Best for: U.S. traders who want real-money prediction markets with the comfort of CFTC oversight.
PredictIt — Legacy politics market leveling up
What it is: The long-running U.S. politics exchange that fought the CFTC and won in 2025, then received CFTC approval for its operator (Aristotle) to run as both a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO). That sets the stage for a fully licensed U.S. prediction exchange.
Why it’s a Polymarket alternative: Similar market logic and community depth, now with a legal path to bigger limits and broader markets than the old no-action-letter era allowed. The CFTC’s July 2025 letter also amended the original university no-action framework, marking the transition.
Caveats: Product rollout, limits, and categories will phase in under the new licenses; keep an eye on venue rules as they go live.
Best for: U.S. traders who want election and policy markets in a fully licensed wrapper.
Manifold — Social “play-money” markets
What it is: A wildly active forecasting playground that uses a virtual currency (Mana) rather than real money. You can buy/sell on everything—from AI milestones to pop culture—without risking dollars. Manifold sunset its brief real-money “Sweepcash” program in March 2025; the core product is play-money with optional charity donations.
Why it’s a Polymarket alternative: Same fast-moving market creation and social discovery, minus KYC and banking. It’s ideal for practice, signal hunting, and community calibration before you size a real position elsewhere. Manifold’s docs and community posts detail the Mana model and charity conversions.
Caveats: Because it’s not real-money, liquidity quality and incentives differ; treat probabilities as informational rather than investable. (Editorial sites sometimes mention past “sweepcash,” but Wikipedia notes it’s gone.)
Best for: Newcomers, researchers, and pros who want to prototype theses without real-money risk.
Omen — Fully decentralized, CTF-based markets
What it is: An on-chain prediction market built on Gnosis’ Conditional Token Framework (CTF). Omen popularized categorical and scalar markets, Realitio oracles, and optional Kleros arbitration. It runs across EVM environments (notably Gnosis Chain) and has open-source market-maker modules.
Why it’s a Polymarket alternative: It offers similar AMM-style markets with outcome tokens you hold in your wallet. If you value censorship resistance and composability with other DeFi apps, Omen is the OG toolkit. Background posts from Gnosis and DXdao chart Omen’s feature set (including scalar markets) and its relationship to the CTF stack.
Caveats: As with any decentralized protocol, UX and active front-ends can ebb and flow; always verify current interfaces and arbitrator settings before trading.
Best for: On-chain users who want non-custodial markets and the ability to compose with DeFi.
Zeitgeist — A prediction-market L1 on Polkadot
What it is: A dedicated Layer-1 for prediction markets in the Polkadot ecosystem. Zeitgeist emphasizes “always-liquid” markets, futarchy governance experiments, and a dev-friendly SDK. Its token (ZTG) powers staking and protocol economics.
Why it’s a Polymarket alternative: If you want on-chain outcome trading but prefer Substrate/Polkadot tech over EVM, Zeitgeist gives you native rails and a growing app layer. The official app and docs showcase live markets and tooling.
Caveats: As a specialized L1, usage will track the broader Polkadot cycle; monitor liquidity, oracle choices, and market resolution rules.
Best for: Builders and traders who are Polkadot-native and want an SDK to launch custom markets.
Quick comparison
- Kalshi (U.S., real money): CFTC-regulated DCM; expanding categories; KYC required; state-level constraints may apply.
- PredictIt (U.S., real money): Court win + DCM/DCO approvals via Aristotle; scaling beyond prior limits.
- Manifold (global, play-money): Mana currency, social discovery, charity conversions; no real-money cash-outs.
- Omen (on-chain): CTF outcome tokens, scalar/categorical markets, optional Kleros arbitration; non-custodial.
- Zeitgeist (on-chain, Polkadot): L1 built for prediction markets with SDK/futarchy; ZTG token economics.
Final tips for safer prediction trading
- Check venue status in your jurisdiction. Even federally regulated venues can face state restrictions; decentralized apps may block certain IPs.
- Read resolution rules carefully. Who’s the oracle or arbitrator? When do disputes resolve? (Omen uses CTF + Realitio/Kleros options; Zeitgeist has its own mechanisms.)
- Mind fees and spreads. Regulated venues publish fee schedules; decentralized AMMs bake costs into pricing and gas.
- Use stablecoins or dollars, not your rent money. Treat prediction markets as a speculative tool and cap your risk.