Zcash (ZEC) is back in the headlines after a sharp rebound that has traders debating whether the privacy coin can reclaim $500 before 2026. In a detailed market update, Cointelegraph highlights a cluster of bullish signals—most notably a potential double-bottom breakout and evidence that larger “whale” addresses have been absorbing supply while smaller holders took profits. The piece also cautions that a bear-flag structure and overbought RSI could spoil the party if momentum fades.
Technicians care about the setup because it combines pattern recognition (a measured move to roughly the $480–$500 supply zone) with behavioral flow (whales adding exposure as retail trims). In simple terms: if price stays above the “neckline” of that double-bottom—and follow-through appears on rising volume—bulls have a cleaner shot at the psychological $500 level. If not, Cointelegraph’s desk warns of a possible $260–$280 retest.
Context matters: ZEC’s history of extremes
Zcash is no stranger to violent cycles. On debut in 2016, ZEC printed four-figure ticks during early illiquid trading before settling lower; on reputable trackers, CoinGecko records an all-time high of $3,191.93 on Oct. 29, 2016, and an all-time low of $16.08 on July 5, 2024—a reminder of how wide ZEC’s historical range is. That backdrop makes any talk of “$500” both less outlandish (it’s far below ATH) and still demanding (it’s many multiples above the 2024 trough).
The supply side: 2024 halving tightened issuance
Beyond TA, tokenomics now tilt more favorable than a year ago. Zcash’s coded-in supply schedule halves the block subsidy roughly every four years, similar to Bitcoin’s design. The second halving in November 2024 cut issuance from 3.125 ZEC to 1.5625 ZEC per block, an event the Electric Coin Company (ECC) tied to its NU6 upgrade and broader economics of scarcity. Earlier, the first halving in November 2020 reduced rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 ZEC. These steps don’t guarantee price gains, but they do reduce structural sell-pressure from miners over time.
Fundamentals: what builders are shipping
Valuation narratives for privacy assets depend on real usage and protocol progress. In late 2025, ECC published a Q4 roadmap focused on advancing the core protocol and user-facing privacy experiences (including ongoing wallet work), while industry coverage underscored a surge in interest and shielded-pool adoption through the year. Execution risk always exists, but a credible build cadence can keep ZEC in the conversation as broader crypto liquidity rotates.
The bear case: regulation and liquidity shocks
The regulatory overhang on privacy coins hasn’t disappeared. Exchanges have at times curtailed or removed markets for ZEC and peers; for example, Bittrex delisted Zcash, Monero, and Dash in January 2021, part of a broader compliance trend. Such actions reduce on-ramps and can thin liquidity—especially during risk-off windows. While policy evolves unevenly across regions, the headline risk remains a key caveat to any price forecast.
Can ZEC really reclaim $500 before 2026?
The bullish script:
- Tape & flows: The double-bottom thesis plays out, whales keep soaking up supply, and buyers flip the $480–$500 band from resistance to support.
- Macro & crypto beta: If crypto-wide risk appetite improves into 2026, ZEC often participates with outsized beta relative to majors—especially when the privacy narrative is in vogue.
- Supply dynamics: Post-halving issuance at 1.5625 ZEC/block modestly eases miner sell pressure compared with earlier cycles, making breakouts easier to sustain if demand rises.
The skeptical script:
- Failed breakout: A bear-flag breakdown or persistent rejection at the 200-period EMA (on lower time frames) can quickly unwind the squeeze, with Cointelegraph’s downside area ($260–$280) back on the table.
- Policy shocks: Fresh exchange restrictions or regional clampdowns can sap liquidity, as past delistings proved.
- Rotation risk: If capital rotates to other narratives (e.g., L1 throughput or AI tokens), ZEC’s relative bid can fade even without a protocol misstep.
What to watch next
- Closing strength near $500: Intraday wicks are common; the tell is a daily or weekly close above the shelf, followed by shallow pullbacks and rising participation. Cointelegraph’s chart markers are your short-term map.
- Whale/retail split: If on-chain/trader dashboards continue to show large addresses net-buying into dips while smaller wallets distribute, the path of least resistance skews higher. (This was a key point in CT’s analysis.)
- Post-halving miner behavior: With issuance now 1.5625 ZEC/block, miner sell-pressure should be lighter than pre-2024. Watch hashpower and pool flows for stress signs during drawdowns.
- Roadmap delivery: ECC’s quarterly updates and ecosystem releases (wallet UX, performance, interoperability) help sustain fundamental interest beyond short-term squeezes.
- Liquidity venues: Exchange listings (or removals) remain a swing factor for privacy coins; historical precedents like Bittrex’s 2021 delisting show how quickly conditions can change.
Conclusion
Zcash has a shot at $500 before 2026—but it’s a conditional shot. The technical picture flagged by Cointelegraph (double-bottom, whale accumulation) offers a real catalyst, while post-2024 halving mechanics make it slightly easier for demand spikes to stick. Countering that, the bear-flag risk, the sector’s regulatory sensitivity, and the chance of liquidity rotation can all cut rallies short. In other words, ZEC’s path remains event-driven and flow-dependent.